Friday, 4 May 2012

Statistical models for the polls of the French and Greek elections under "test" on 06th May 2012

There are numerous polls performed before the election date, having always an approximation -safety net- used (+/-), since every poll is based on a result produced on a certain time and condition, most of the times the estimations made are coming after, severe processing of answers to multiple questions.

The answers given might reveal: emotions (that can be "translated" but also "manipulated), there can be political/religious beliefs taken out of specific -targeted- questions, there can be even class stratification , from answers like: "what is your occupation", "what is the area of residence", "how many days a year you plan and go on vacations", etc.

The construction of such results is based on statistical "models", that are being used in an exit poll and are going to be "stressed out" this coming Sunday 06th of May having two very important election rights to follow.

One election right in Greece and one in France. I have used on purpose "stressed out" earlier in order to denote the difficulty for the poll makers to retrieve with safety, the right conclusions. Both elections are critical first of all for the countries itself and secondly for Europe.

So the outcome of the exit poll has to include this time more parameters in order to achieve as closest possible the actual result.

Polls are very important and more useful before the election date and as the time approaches near. There is a legitimacy though that prohibits the performance of any poll before a certain number of days prior to the election date, and this in order to avoid any influence on the electors, by broadcasting polls results in favour of one or the other party based on the "pulse" and the snapshot of the electors in a specific time, etc.

For the poll companies the big bet is on Sunday evening, where for both countries after the closing time on the election process, all major media will broadcast poll results performed during the election date on selective elections sites from different companies.

This is a big challenge here for the polling companies, as whoever predicts nearest to the actual result it will have the right to say that it's prediction statistic models proved correct, and this will become a success story to reference for the company's reputation and for the fact that the company will "lead" the next future election period on the strategically poll designing.

For article's completeness: it is not only the successful poll prediction and the challenge that the IT companies are being called to undertake coming Sunday 06 May that matters:
- Elections in Greece are considered as a crossroad - after having passed many others- since the electors have to choose the appropriate party and persons to form the next government that will have to move forward the country, out of the Economic Crisis, decreasing depression, inflation, deficit, recovering the actual economy, stop the increase on the number of jobs lost in order to decrease unemployment, and plan how to deal with other austerity measures;
- French elections on the 06th of May are considered important also as the political leaders of the two major parties  (one from the Liberals and one form the Socialists), rally for who will become the president of France for the next elected period. It is considered that the election of the French president will affect the rue of Europe from now on, whoever finally wins. 

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